By Campbell Anderson | CWESW Member
I write from a mathematical perspective to explain the second list voting system and from a non-party viewpoint and to explain why voting SNP with your second vote could reduce the number of Independence supporting MSP’s in the new parliament.
Our voting system is deliberately designed to make an overall majority in our parliament difficult. We have 79 members elected from constituencies on a first past the post system and a further 56 “list” members from a second vote additional member (D’Hondt) system. This system applies handicaps to the parties who have won constituency seats in an effort to spread the representation of elected members. An overall majority of the total 129 members could be achieved from the first constituency vote by the SNP winning at least 65 out of these 79 seats. Failing this, the addition of list seats could add to the SNP’s total, giving the party an overall majority. However, as I will explain, the more constituency seats you win, the greater is the handicap in winning list seats. I will use the actual election results from 2016 in my home region Lothian, to explain.
In 2016 the constituency results in Lothian were, SNP 6, Labour 1, Lib Dem 1. The number of votes cast for each of the main parties in the second list vote was, SNP 118546, Tory 74972, Labour 67991, Green 34551, Lib Dem 18479. The other parties UKIP, Women’s Equality, Rise and Solidarity, polled too few votes to contend a seat.
The D’Hondt system then handicaps parties by dividing these votes by 1 plus the number of constituencies won. Therefore, dividing the SNP result by 7 (6+1) and the Tory, Labour and Lib Dems votes by 2 (1+1) produces revised votes for the first seat at:
SNP 118546/7=16935, Tory 74972/2=37486, Labour 67991/2=37486
Green 34551/1=34551/1=34551, Lib Dem 18479/2=9239
The first seat goes to Tory. Their vote is now reversed further to 74972/3=24991.
For the second seat the revised votes are now SNP=16935, Tory-24991, Labour=37486, Green=34551, Lib Dem=9239. The second list seat goes to Labour. Their vote is now revised further to 67991/3=22664.
For the third seat the revised votes are now SNP=16935, Tory=24991, Labour=22664, Green=34551, Lib Dem=9239. The third seat goes to Green. Their vote is now revised further to 34551/2=17276.
For the fourth seat the revised votes are now SNP=16935, Tory=24991, Labour=22664, Green=17276, Lib Dem=9239. The fourth seat goes to Tory. Their vote is revised further to 74972/4=18743.
For the fifth seat the revised votes are now SNP=16935, Tory=18743, Labour=22664, Green=17276, Lib Dem=9239. The fifth seat goes to Labour. Their vote is revised further to 67991/4=16998.
For the sixth seat the revised votes are now SNP=16935, Tory=18743, Labour=16998, Green=17276, Lib Dem=9239. The sixth seat goes to Tory. Their votes are revised further to 74972/5=14994.
The final seventh seat revised votes are now SNP=16935, Tory=14994, Labour=16998, Green=17276, Lib Dem=9239. The final seventh seat goes to Green.
The list seat totals Tory 3, Labour 2 and Green 2. In addition to the smaller parties not winning a seat, the SNP in spite of being by far the largest vote and the Lib Dems were handicapped by the system, to gain no list seats.
We can only use opinion polls to speculate about the forthcoming election results in May, but if the polls are accurate, the SNP might win all 9 Lothian constituency seats. That would have two effects. Firstly, by increasing the SNP handicap, by dividing their list vote by 10. Their chances of winning seats are much worse than 2016, even for a similar total vote. Secondly, the handicap for the Tory, Labour and Lib Dem parties would be reduced, boosting their chances of winning list seats. Using the same number of votes to each party as in 2016 in these new circumstances would result in the Green party losing a seat to Labour or the Lib Dem’s.
It is understandable why the SNP are promoting two votes for their own party. They can never be sure in advance of the actual voting and in some regions, they may win list seats. Their aim understandably will be to gain an overall majority. However, if like myself your principal concern is elect a majority of Independence supporting members, the strategy of the SNP is flawed and could in regions like Lothian let Unionist parties in.
Mathematically, I would urge you to use your second list to vote Green or another pro independence candidate rather than SNP, if you want to maximise the number of Independence supporting members in our next parliament.